What it is
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides standardized cost and performance projections for electricity generation technologies including solar PV, wind, battery storage, geothermal, hydropower, natural gas, coal, and nuclear. The data is freely available in interactive dashboards, downloadable spreadsheets, and Tableau workbooks, covering current costs and projections through 2050 under multiple scenarios.
Why we picked this
The ATB is the foundation for most US energy modeling and policy analysis. When the EIA forecasts energy mix, when utilities plan capacity expansion, and when investors model renewable energy project returns, they start with ATB assumptions. Understanding these baselines is essential for anyone evaluating energy investments or policy proposals.
Key takeaways
- ATB data shows utility-scale solar PV costs declined 90% since 2010 and are projected to decline an additional 40-60% by 2050 under moderate scenarios.
- Battery storage costs (4-hour duration) dropped below $200/kWh by 2024, with ATB projecting $80-120/kWh by 2030 under conservative assumptions.
- The ATB includes three projection scenarios (conservative, moderate, advanced), providing a range for financial modeling rather than a single point estimate.